Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
2026-04-12 · FINAL
128 – 118
P(away)
26%
P(home)
74%
λ home / away · confidence
123.5 / 113.2 · 69%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 26.1 → 23
Over/Under 25.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-3.1)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 19.4 → 24
Over/Under 18.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+4.6)
- Stephon CastleExp 18.5 → 10
Over/Under 17.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-8.5)
- Keldon JohnsonExp 15.2 → 18
Over/Under 14.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+2.8)
- Dylan HarperExp 14.1 → 9
Over/Under 13.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Under (-5.1)
- Devin VassellExp 13.9 → 19
Over/Under 12.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+5.1)
- Julian ChampagnieExp 11.7 → 7
Over/Under 10.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Under (-4.7)
- Jonas ValanciunasExp 11.4 → 16
Over/Under 10.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+4.6)
Boxscore leaders
- Julian Strawther25 PTS
- De'Aaron Fox24 PTS
- Nikola Jokic23 PTS
- Devin Vassell19 PTS
- Keldon Johnson18 PTS
- Jonas Valanciunas16 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 10.9 → 1
Over/Under 9.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Under (-9.9)
- Stephon CastleExp 8.7 → 9
Over/Under 7.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+0.3)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 6.7 → 5
Over/Under 5.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-1.7)
- Dylan HarperExp 4.5 → 1
Over/Under 3.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Under (-3.5)
- Devin VassellExp 2.6 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Over (-0.6)
- Bruce BrownExp 2.2 → 5
Over/Under 1.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+2.8)
- Harrison BarnesExp 1.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 84% / 16% · Actual Over (-0.9)
- Jalen PickettExp 1.8 → 6
Over/Under 0.5: 83% / 17% · Actual Over (+4.2)
Boxscore leaders
- Stephon Castle9 AST
- Jalen Pickett6 AST
- Bruce Brown5 AST
- Carter Bryant5 AST
- De'Aaron Fox5 AST
- Jonas Valanciunas4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 1.2 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 1.2 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- Stephon CastleExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Bruce BrownExp 0.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+0.1)
- Dylan HarperExp 0.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+0.1)
- Devin VassellExp 0.9 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+1.1)
- Julian ChampagnieExp 0.8 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Under (-0.8)
- Jordan McLaughlinExp 0.7 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 52% / 48% · Actual Under (-0.7)
Boxscore leaders
- Devin Vassell2 STL
- Bruce Brown1 STL
- Curtis Jones1 STL
- David Roddy1 STL
- Dylan Harper1 STL
- Harrison Barnes1 STL
Recent form (L5)
DEN
Record: 5-0
PPG 133.2 · Opp PPG 121.8
SAS
Record: 4-1
PPG 123.6 · Opp PPG 111.6
Head to head
DEN 6–4 SAS · 10 Meetings
