San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
2025-11-28 · FINAL
139 – 136
P(away)
46%
P(home)
54%
λ home / away · confidence
118.2 / 116.4 · 12%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 30.3 → 21
Over/Under 29.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-9.2)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 25.0 → 15
Over/Under 23.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-10)
- Jamal MurrayExp 23.4 → 37
Over/Under 22.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+13.6)
- Devin VassellExp 14.9 → 35
Over/Under 13.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+20.1)
- Keldon JohnsonExp 13.7 → 14
Over/Under 12.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+0.3)
- Harrison BarnesExp 13.3 → 10
Over/Under 12.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-3.3)
- Peyton WatsonExp 13.1 → 15
Over/Under 12.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Dylan HarperExp 12.9 → 11
Over/Under 11.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Under (-1.9)
Boxscore leaders
- Jamal Murray37 PTS
- Devin Vassell35 PTS
- Cameron Johnson28 PTS
- Julian Champagnie25 PTS
- Nikola Jokic21 PTS
- De'Aaron Fox15 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 10.4 → 10
Over/Under 9.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (-0.4)
- Jamal MurrayExp 7.3 → 7
Over/Under 6.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 6.8 → 12
Over/Under 5.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (+5.2)
- Dylan HarperExp 3.8 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (-0.8)
- Kelly OlynykExp 2.9 → 0
Over/Under 1.5: 78% / 22% · Actual Under (-2.9)
- Cameron JohnsonExp 2.6 → 1
Over/Under 1.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Under (-1.6)
- Devin VassellExp 2.5 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (-0.5)
- Jeremy SochanExp 2.2 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (-0.2)
Boxscore leaders
- De'Aaron Fox12 AST
- Nikola Jokic10 AST
- Jamal Murray7 AST
- Harrison Barnes5 AST
- Dylan Harper3 AST
- Peyton Watson3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- De'Aaron FoxExp 1.3 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- Jamal MurrayExp 1.3 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- Nikola JokicExp 1.2 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Over (-0.2)
- Devin VassellExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Peyton WatsonExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Harrison BarnesExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (0)
- Dylan HarperExp 0.9 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+2.1)
- Julian ChampagnieExp 0.8 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+0.2)
Boxscore leaders
- Dylan Harper3 STL
- Cameron Johnson2 STL
- Carter Bryant1 STL
- De'Aaron Fox1 STL
- Devin Vassell1 STL
- Harrison Barnes1 STL
Recent form (L5)
SAS
Record: 4-1
PPG 117.2 · Opp PPG 110
DEN
Record: 3-2
PPG 122.4 · Opp PPG 120
Head to head
SAS 4–6 DEN · 10 Meetings
