Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
2026-03-12 · FINAL
136 – 131
P(away)
32%
P(home)
68%
λ home / away · confidence
120.1 / 113.2 · 50%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 27.6 → 31
Over/Under 26.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+3.4)
- Jamal MurrayExp 25.8 → 39
Over/Under 24.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+13.2)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 19.7 → 27
Over/Under 18.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+7.3)
- Stephon CastleExp 16.2 → 30
Over/Under 15.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+13.8)
- Devin VassellExp 14.3 → 18
Over/Under 13.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+3.7)
- Tim Hardaway Jr.Exp 13.5 → 1
Over/Under 12.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-12.5)
- Keldon JohnsonExp 12.5 → 5
Over/Under 11.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-7.5)
- Dylan HarperExp 12.3 → 13
Over/Under 11.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+0.8)
Boxscore leaders
- Jamal Murray39 PTS
- Nikola Jokic31 PTS
- Stephon Castle30 PTS
- De'Aaron Fox27 PTS
- Harrison Barnes20 PTS
- Spencer Jones19 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 9.5 → 12
Over/Under 8.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+2.5)
- Stephon CastleExp 7.2 → 10
Over/Under 6.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+2.8)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 6.6 → 9
Over/Under 5.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+2.4)
- Jamal MurrayExp 6.5 → 7
Over/Under 5.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+0.5)
- Dylan HarperExp 4.4 → 5
Over/Under 3.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+0.6)
- Christian BraunExp 2.9 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 79% / 21% · Actual Over (-0.9)
- Devin VassellExp 2.6 → 3
Over/Under 1.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (+0.4)
- Tyus JonesExp 2.5 → 0
Over/Under 1.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Under (-2.5)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic12 AST
- Stephon Castle10 AST
- De'Aaron Fox9 AST
- Jamal Murray7 AST
- Dylan Harper5 AST
- Devin Vassell3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 1.4 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 76% / 24% · Actual Over (+1.6)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Stephon CastleExp 1.1 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Jamal MurrayExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (0)
- Bruce BrownExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Dylan HarperExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Cameron JohnsonExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Christian BraunExp 0.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+0.1)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic3 STL
- Devin Vassell2 STL
- Luke Kornet2 STL
- Mason Plumlee2 STL
- Spencer Jones2 STL
- Christian Braun1 STL
Recent form (L5)
DEN
Record: 3-2
PPG 121.2 · Opp PPG 120.4
SAS
Record: 5-0
PPG 127.6 · Opp PPG 109
Head to head
DEN 5–5 SAS · 10 Meetings
