San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
2026-04-04 · FINAL
134 – 136
P(away)
60%
P(home)
40%
λ home / away · confidence
115.5 / 119.4 · 28%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Jamal MurrayExp 26.3 → 15
Over/Under 25.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Under (-11.3)
- Nikola JokicExp 25.9 → 40
Over/Under 24.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (+14.1)
- Victor WembanyamaExp 25.9 → 34
Over/Under 24.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+8.1)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 18.5 → 14
Over/Under 17.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-4.5)
- Stephon CastleExp 18.1 → 20
Over/Under 17.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Aaron GordonExp 15.3 → 15
Over/Under 14.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- Tim Hardaway Jr.Exp 15.0 → 10
Over/Under 14.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-5)
- Keldon JohnsonExp 13.8 → 10
Over/Under 12.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Under (-3.8)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic40 PTS
- Victor Wembanyama34 PTS
- Christian Braun21 PTS
- Stephon Castle20 PTS
- Devin Vassell18 PTS
- Julian Champagnie18 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 11.2 → 13
Over/Under 10.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+1.8)
- Stephon CastleExp 8.3 → 9
Over/Under 7.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+0.7)
- Jamal MurrayExp 7.0 → 10
Over/Under 6.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+3)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 6.0 → 4
Over/Under 5.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Under (-2)
- Dylan HarperExp 4.1 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Victor WembanyamaExp 3.5 → 7
Over/Under 2.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (+3.5)
- Devin VassellExp 2.5 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 71% / 29% · Actual Over (-0.5)
- Aaron GordonExp 2.5 → 3
Over/Under 1.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Over (+0.5)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic13 AST
- Jamal Murray10 AST
- Stephon Castle9 AST
- Victor Wembanyama7 AST
- Christian Braun4 AST
- De'Aaron Fox4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 1.2 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- De'Aaron FoxExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Victor WembanyamaExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Stephon CastleExp 1.0 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Under (-1)
- Jamal MurrayExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Devin VassellExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Cameron JohnsonExp 0.8 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+1.2)
- Julian ChampagnieExp 0.8 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-0.8)
Boxscore leaders
- Cameron Johnson2 STL
- Bruce Brown1 STL
- Carter Bryant1 STL
- De'Aaron Fox1 STL
- Harrison Barnes1 STL
- Jamal Murray1 STL
Recent form (L5)
SAS
Record: 5-0
PPG 124.8 · Opp PPG 103.8
DEN
Record: 5-0
PPG 129.6 · Opp PPG 119.4
Head to head
SAS 5–5 DEN · 10 Meetings
