Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
2026-04-12 · FINAL
117 – 143
P(away)
67%
P(home)
33%
λ home / away · confidence
117.8 / 124.4 · 47%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Tyler HerroExp 20.9 → 5
Over/Under 19.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-15.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 20.0 → 25
Over/Under 18.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+5)
- Norman PowellExp 18.4 → 25
Over/Under 17.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+6.6)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 16.8 → 26
Over/Under 15.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+9.2)
- Andrew WigginsExp 14.4 → 4
Over/Under 13.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-10.4)
- Corey KispertExp 12.8 → 21
Over/Under 11.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+8.2)
- Kel'el WareExp 12.0 → 16
Over/Under 11.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+4)
- Keshad JohnsonExp 11.2 → 12
Over/Under 10.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+0.8)
Boxscore leaders
- Buddy Hield31 PTS
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.26 PTS
- Bam Adebayo25 PTS
- Norman Powell25 PTS
- Corey Kispert21 PTS
- Asa Newell17 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Davion MitchellExp 6.4 → 1
Over/Under 5.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Under (-5.4)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 4.7 → 5
Over/Under 3.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (+0.3)
- Tyler HerroExp 4.5 → 8
Over/Under 3.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (+3.5)
- Bam AdebayoExp 4.4 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Under (-1.4)
- Kasparas JakucionisExp 3.0 → 5
Over/Under 1.5: 80% / 20% · Actual Over (+2)
- Andrew WigginsExp 2.4 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (-0.4)
- Norman PowellExp 2.3 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- Corey KispertExp 1.7 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 82% / 18% · Actual Over (+0.3)
Boxscore leaders
- Keshon Gilbert9 AST
- Tyler Herro8 AST
- Keaton Wallace6 AST
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.5 AST
- Kasparas Jakucionis5 AST
- Bam Adebayo3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Davion MitchellExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (0)
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.0 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+2)
- Tyler HerroExp 0.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+0.1)
- Andrew WigginsExp 0.8 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+0.2)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 0.7 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 51% / 49% · Actual Under (-0.7)
- Norman PowellExp 0.7 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 49% / 51% · Actual Over (+0.3)
- Keshon GilbertExp 0.6 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 47% / 53% · Actual Over (+0.4)
- Kasparas JakucionisExp 0.6 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 47% / 53% · Actual Under (-0.6)
Boxscore leaders
- Bam Adebayo3 STL
- Keshad Johnson2 STL
- Andrew Wiggins1 STL
- Buddy Hield1 STL
- Davion Mitchell1 STL
- Kel'el Ware1 STL
Recent form (L5)
ATL
Record: 3-2
PPG 123.2 · Opp PPG 108
MIA
Record: 2-3
PPG 126 · Opp PPG 129.8
Head to head
ATL 4–6 MIA · 10 Meetings
