Tonight

Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks

2025-12-26 · FINAL

126111

P(away)

52%

P(home)

48%

λ home / away · confidence

120.4 / 121.2 · 6%

Player props

Expected counting stats + over/under

Points

Expected PTS · O/U near projection

  • Jalen JohnsonExp 27.024

    Over/Under 26.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Under (-3)

  • Norman PowellExp 22.825

    Over/Under 21.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (+2.2)

  • Over/Under 20.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Under (-6.2)

  • Trae YoungExp 20.230

    Over/Under 19.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+9.8)

  • Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 18.416

    Over/Under 17.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-2.4)

  • Onyeka OkongwuExp 16.312

    Over/Under 15.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Under (-4.3)

  • Andrew WigginsExp 15.918

    Over/Under 14.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+2.1)

  • Kel'el WareExp 13.716

    Over/Under 12.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+2.3)

Assists

Expected AST · O/U near projection

  • Jalen JohnsonExp 8.910

    Over/Under 7.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (+1.1)

  • Trae YoungExp 8.86

    Over/Under 7.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-2.8)

  • Davion MitchellExp 7.97

    Over/Under 6.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.9)

  • Dyson DanielsExp 6.13

    Over/Under 5.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-3.1)

  • Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 4.93

    Over/Under 3.5: 73% / 28% · Actual Under (-1.9)

  • Onyeka OkongwuExp 3.84

    Over/Under 2.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (+0.2)

  • Over/Under 2.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (-0.7)

  • Pelle LarssonExp 3.45

    Over/Under 2.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (+1.6)

Steals

Expected STL · O/U near projection

  • Dyson DanielsExp 1.42

    Over/Under 0.5: 76% / 24% · Actual Over (+0.6)

  • Davion MitchellExp 1.42

    Over/Under 0.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (+0.6)

  • Dru SmithExp 1.33

    Over/Under 0.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (+1.7)

  • Norman PowellExp 1.21

    Over/Under 0.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (-0.2)

  • Jalen JohnsonExp 1.11

    Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.1)

  • Onyeka OkongwuExp 1.11

    Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.1)

  • Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)

  • Andrew WigginsExp 1.01

    Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (0)

Recent form (L5)

MIA

Record: 1-4

PPG 109.8 · Opp PPG 119

ATL

Record: 1-4

PPG 125.6 · Opp PPG 130.6

Head to head

MIA 73 ATL · 10 Meetings