Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
2025-12-26 · FINAL
126 – 111
P(away)
52%
P(home)
48%
λ home / away · confidence
120.4 / 121.2 · 6%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 27.0 → 24
Over/Under 26.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Under (-3)
- Norman PowellExp 22.8 → 25
Over/Under 21.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (+2.2)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 21.2 → 15
Over/Under 20.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Under (-6.2)
- Trae YoungExp 20.2 → 30
Over/Under 19.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+9.8)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 18.4 → 16
Over/Under 17.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-2.4)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 16.3 → 12
Over/Under 15.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Under (-4.3)
- Andrew WigginsExp 15.9 → 18
Over/Under 14.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+2.1)
- Kel'el WareExp 13.7 → 16
Over/Under 12.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+2.3)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young30 PTS
- Norman Powell25 PTS
- Jalen Johnson24 PTS
- Pelle Larsson21 PTS
- Andrew Wiggins18 PTS
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.16 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 8.9 → 10
Over/Under 7.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (+1.1)
- Trae YoungExp 8.8 → 6
Over/Under 7.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-2.8)
- Davion MitchellExp 7.9 → 7
Over/Under 6.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.9)
- Dyson DanielsExp 6.1 → 3
Over/Under 5.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-3.1)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 4.9 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 73% / 28% · Actual Under (-1.9)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 3.8 → 4
Over/Under 2.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (+0.2)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 3.7 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (-0.7)
- Pelle LarssonExp 3.4 → 5
Over/Under 2.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (+1.6)
Boxscore leaders
- Jalen Johnson10 AST
- Davion Mitchell7 AST
- Trae Young6 AST
- Norman Powell5 AST
- Pelle Larsson5 AST
- Nikola Jovic4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Dyson DanielsExp 1.4 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 76% / 24% · Actual Over (+0.6)
- Davion MitchellExp 1.4 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (+0.6)
- Dru SmithExp 1.3 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (+1.7)
- Norman PowellExp 1.2 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (-0.2)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Andrew WigginsExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (0)
Boxscore leaders
- Dru Smith3 STL
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.3 STL
- Davion Mitchell2 STL
- Dyson Daniels2 STL
- Andrew Wiggins1 STL
- Jalen Johnson1 STL
Recent form (L5)
MIA
Record: 1-4
PPG 109.8 · Opp PPG 119
ATL
Record: 1-4
PPG 125.6 · Opp PPG 130.6
Head to head
MIA 7–3 ATL · 10 Meetings
