Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
2025-03-27 · FINAL
112 – 122
P(away)
61%
P(home)
39%
λ home / away · confidence
111.7 / 115.5 · 30%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 24.1 → 29
Over/Under 23.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+4.9)
- Tyler HerroExp 23.5 → 36
Over/Under 22.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+12.5)
- Andrew WigginsExp 19.9 → 16
Over/Under 18.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-3.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 18.2 → 12
Over/Under 17.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Under (-6.2)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 17.3
Over/Under 16.5: 56% / 44%
- Dyson DanielsExp 14.3 → 9
Over/Under 13.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-5.3)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 13.6 → 15
Over/Under 12.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+1.4)
- Zaccharie RisacherExp 13.6 → 5
Over/Under 12.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-8.6)
Boxscore leaders
- Tyler Herro36 PTS
- Trae Young29 PTS
- Caris LeVert17 PTS
- Andrew Wiggins16 PTS
- Davion Mitchell16 PTS
- Onyeka Okongwu15 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 10.1 → 12
Over/Under 9.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Tyler HerroExp 5.5 → 4
Over/Under 4.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Under (-1.5)
- Davion MitchellExp 5.4 → 6
Over/Under 4.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+0.6)
- Dyson DanielsExp 4.7 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Under (-1.7)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 4.4
Over/Under 3.5: 65% / 35%
- Bam AdebayoExp 4.3 → 4
Over/Under 3.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- Caris LeVertExp 3.2 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (-0.2)
- Andrew WigginsExp 3.1 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (-0.1)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young12 AST
- Davion Mitchell6 AST
- Bam Adebayo4 AST
- Kyle Anderson4 AST
- Tyler Herro4 AST
- Vit Krejci4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Dyson DanielsExp 1.6 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 80% / 20% · Actual Over (+0.4)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 1.4
Over/Under 0.5: 75% / 25%
- Dru SmithExp 1.3
Over/Under 0.5: 74% / 26%
- Davion MitchellExp 1.3 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Over (-0.3)
- Trae YoungExp 1.1 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (+0.9)
- Haywood HighsmithExp 1.1 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (+0.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.1 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Tyler HerroExp 1.1 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (+0.9)
Boxscore leaders
- Bam Adebayo3 STL
- Dyson Daniels2 STL
- Haywood Highsmith2 STL
- Onyeka Okongwu2 STL
- Terance Mann2 STL
- Trae Young2 STL
Recent form (L5)
ATL
Record: 3-2
PPG 123.6 · Opp PPG 115.8
MIA
Record: 2-3
PPG 108 · Opp PPG 105
Head to head
ATL 4–6 MIA · 10 Meetings
