Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
2026-02-03 · FINAL
127 – 115
P(away)
49%
P(home)
51%
λ home / away · confidence
119.5 / 119.0 · 3%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 25.1 → 29
Over/Under 24.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Over (+3.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 21.5 → 16
Over/Under 20.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-5.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 20.9 → 19
Over/Under 19.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-1.9)
- CJ McCollumExp 19.5 → 26
Over/Under 18.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+6.5)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 15.9 → 21
Over/Under 14.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+5.1)
- Nikola JovicExp 13.0 → 5
Over/Under 11.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Under (-8)
- Simone FontecchioExp 12.8 → 18
Over/Under 11.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+5.2)
- Corey KispertExp 12.4 → 13
Over/Under 11.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+0.6)
Boxscore leaders
- Jalen Johnson29 PTS
- CJ McCollum26 PTS
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.21 PTS
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker19 PTS
- Pelle Larsson18 PTS
- Simone Fontecchio18 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 7.6 → 11
Over/Under 6.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+3.4)
- Davion MitchellExp 7.5 → 10
Over/Under 6.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+2.5)
- Dyson DanielsExp 6.7 → 5
Over/Under 5.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Under (-1.7)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 5.5 → 3
Over/Under 4.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Under (-2.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 4.0 → 7
Over/Under 3.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+3)
- Pelle LarssonExp 4.0 → 5
Over/Under 2.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Over (+1)
- CJ McCollumExp 3.9 → 2
Over/Under 2.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Under (-1.9)
- Dru SmithExp 3.4 → 2
Over/Under 2.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-1.4)
Boxscore leaders
- Jalen Johnson11 AST
- Davion Mitchell10 AST
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker7 AST
- Dyson Daniels5 AST
- Pelle Larsson5 AST
- Corey Kispert4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Dyson DanielsExp 1.7 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 81% / 19% · Actual Over (-0.7)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Dru SmithExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 1.1 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Davion MitchellExp 1.1 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Mouhamed GueyeExp 1.0 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+2)
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (0)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 1.0 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Under (-1)
Boxscore leaders
- Mouhamed Gueye3 STL
- Kasparas Jakucionis2 STL
- Myron Gardner2 STL
- Asa Newell1 STL
- Bam Adebayo1 STL
- Dru Smith1 STL
Recent form (L5)
ATL
Record: 3-2
PPG 113.8 · Opp PPG 111.6
MIA
Record: 3-2
PPG 125.2 · Opp PPG 113.8
Head to head
ATL 3–7 MIA · 10 Meetings
