Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
2026-02-20 · FINAL
128 – 97
P(away)
44%
P(home)
56%
λ home / away · confidence
122.0 / 119.5 · 18%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 24.8 → 16
Over/Under 23.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-8.8)
- Norman PowellExp 22.9 → 15
Over/Under 21.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-7.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 21.6 → 17
Over/Under 20.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-4.6)
- Tyler HerroExp 21.3 → 24
Over/Under 20.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+2.7)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 20.4 → 20
Over/Under 19.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (-0.4)
- CJ McCollumExp 20.1 → 20
Over/Under 19.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Andrew WigginsExp 17.4 → 13
Over/Under 16.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-4.4)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 16.1 → 22
Over/Under 15.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+5.9)
Boxscore leaders
- Tyler Herro24 PTS
- Onyeka Okongwu22 PTS
- CJ McCollum20 PTS
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker20 PTS
- Bam Adebayo17 PTS
- Jalen Johnson16 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Jalen JohnsonExp 8.8 → 11
Over/Under 7.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (+2.2)
- Davion MitchellExp 6.5 → 7
Over/Under 5.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+0.5)
- Dyson DanielsExp 6.2 → 3
Over/Under 5.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-3.2)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 5.1 → 4
Over/Under 4.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 4.7 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Under (-1.7)
- CJ McCollumExp 4.0 → 1
Over/Under 3.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Under (-3)
- Pelle LarssonExp 4.0 → 1
Over/Under 2.5: 76% / 24% · Actual Under (-3)
- Onyeka OkongwuExp 3.2 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (-0.2)
Boxscore leaders
- Jalen Johnson11 AST
- Davion Mitchell7 AST
- Bam Adebayo5 AST
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.4 AST
- Corey Kispert3 AST
- Dyson Daniels3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Dyson DanielsExp 1.5 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 78% / 22% · Actual Over (+0.5)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 1.4 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Under (-1.4)
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerExp 1.3 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Under (-1.3)
- Andrew WigginsExp 1.1 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Davion MitchellExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Dru SmithExp 1.1 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.1 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (-0.1)
- Tyler HerroExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (0)
Boxscore leaders
- Dyson Daniels2 STL
- Kasparas Jakucionis2 STL
- Pelle Larsson2 STL
- Bam Adebayo1 STL
- Davion Mitchell1 STL
- Mouhamed Gueye1 STL
Recent form (L5)
MIA
Record: 2-3
PPG 115.4 · Opp PPG 110.4
ATL
Record: 2-3
PPG 116 · Opp PPG 120
Head to head
MIA 6–4 ATL · 10 Meetings
