Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
2024-12-28 · FINAL
110 – 120
P(away)
52%
P(home)
48%
λ home / away · confidence
113.2 / 114.1 · 7%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Tyler HerroExp 24.1 → 28
Over/Under 23.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+3.9)
- Trae YoungExp 21.6 → 11
Over/Under 20.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-10.6)
- De'Andre HunterExp 19.3 → 26
Over/Under 18.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+6.7)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 18.4 → 28
Over/Under 17.5: 57% / 43% · Actual Over (+9.6)
- Bam AdebayoExp 17.9 → 17
Over/Under 16.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (-0.9)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 17.1
Over/Under 16.5: 54% / 46%
- Terry RozierExp 12.8 → 9
Over/Under 11.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Under (-3.8)
- Dyson DanielsExp 12.5
Over/Under 11.5: 60% / 40%
Boxscore leaders
- Jalen Johnson28 PTS
- Tyler Herro28 PTS
- De'Andre Hunter26 PTS
- Garrison Mathews18 PTS
- Bam Adebayo17 PTS
- Duncan Robinson16 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 10.3 → 15
Over/Under 9.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+4.7)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 5.7 → 5
Over/Under 4.5: 67% / 33% · Actual Over (-0.7)
- Tyler HerroExp 5.3 → 10
Over/Under 4.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (+4.7)
- Bam AdebayoExp 5.2 → 2
Over/Under 4.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-3.2)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 5.1
Over/Under 4.5: 58% / 42%
- Dyson DanielsExp 3.8
Over/Under 2.5: 73% / 27%
- Terry RozierExp 2.8 → 1
Over/Under 1.5: 77% / 23% · Actual Under (-1.8)
- Duncan RobinsonExp 2.7 → 5
Over/Under 1.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Over (+2.3)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young15 AST
- Tyler Herro10 AST
- Duncan Robinson5 AST
- Jalen Johnson5 AST
- Vit Krejci5 AST
- Bam Adebayo2 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Dyson DanielsExp 1.6
Over/Under 0.5: 80% / 20%
- Dru SmithExp 1.4
Over/Under 0.5: 75% / 25%
- Jalen JohnsonExp 1.3 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 1.2
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29%
- Trae YoungExp 1.2 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Over (-0.2)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Exp 1.1 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (0)
- Tyler HerroExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-0.9)
Boxscore leaders
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.3 STL
- Duncan Robinson2 STL
- Larry Nance Jr.2 STL
- Alec Burks1 STL
- Bam Adebayo1 STL
- Clint Capela1 STL
Recent form (L5)
MIA
Record: 2-3
PPG 106.8 · Opp PPG 106.6
ATL
Record: 2-3
PPG 119.6 · Opp PPG 121.6
Head to head
MIA 8–2 ATL · 10 Meetings
