Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
2023-11-11 · FINAL
117 – 109
P(away)
48%
P(home)
52%
λ home / away · confidence
114.1 / 113.1 · 7%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 25.0 → 27
Over/Under 24.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Over (+2)
- Bam AdebayoExp 23.8 → 26
Over/Under 22.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+2.2)
- Tyler HerroExp 23.5
Over/Under 22.5: 57% / 43%
- Dejounte MurrayExp 21.2 → 23
Over/Under 20.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+1.8)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 17.8
Over/Under 16.5: 60% / 40%
- Jalen JohnsonExp 14.6 → 9
Over/Under 13.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-5.6)
- De'Andre HunterExp 13.7 → 10
Over/Under 12.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-3.7)
- Bogdan BogdanovicExp 12.2 → 15
Over/Under 11.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+2.8)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young27 PTS
- Bam Adebayo26 PTS
- Dejounte Murray23 PTS
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.20 PTS
- Kyle Lowry17 PTS
- Josh Richardson16 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 10.4 → 11
Over/Under 9.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+0.6)
- Dejounte MurrayExp 6.0 → 5
Over/Under 5.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Under (-1)
- Kyle LowryExp 5.4 → 4
Over/Under 4.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Under (-1.4)
- Tyler HerroExp 4.9
Over/Under 3.5: 72% / 28%
- Bam AdebayoExp 3.7 → 4
Over/Under 2.5: 72% / 28% · Actual Over (+0.3)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 3.6
Over/Under 2.5: 70% / 30%
- Bogdan BogdanovicExp 3.3 → 1
Over/Under 2.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Under (-2.3)
- Jalen JohnsonExp 2.7 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Over (-0.7)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young11 AST
- Dejounte Murray5 AST
- Haywood Highsmith5 AST
- Bam Adebayo4 AST
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.4 AST
- Kyle Lowry4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Kyle LowryExp 1.4 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 76% / 24% · Actual Over (-0.4)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 1.2
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29%
- Dejounte MurrayExp 1.2 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 71% / 29% · Actual Over (+1.8)
- Trae YoungExp 1.2 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (-0.2)
- Tyler HerroExp 1.1
Over/Under 0.5: 68% / 32%
- Bogdan BogdanovicExp 1.0 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Under (-1)
- Dru SmithExp 1.0 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+2)
- Bam AdebayoExp 0.9 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+1.1)
Boxscore leaders
- Dejounte Murray3 STL
- Dru Smith3 STL
- Bam Adebayo2 STL
- Haywood Highsmith2 STL
- Clint Capela1 STL
- De'Andre Hunter1 STL
Recent form (L5)
MIA
Record: 3-2
PPG 111.2 · Opp PPG 110.8
ATL
Record: 4-1
PPG 123.4 · Opp PPG 116.8
Head to head
MIA 8–2 ATL · 10 Meetings
