Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
2023-03-04 · FINAL
109 – 117
P(away)
42%
P(home)
58%
λ home / away · confidence
114.4 / 111.2 · 23%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 26.7 → 8
Over/Under 25.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-18.7)
- Tyler HerroExp 22.1 → 20
Over/Under 21.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-2.1)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 21.9 → 15
Over/Under 20.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-6.9)
- Bam AdebayoExp 21.2 → 30
Over/Under 20.5: 55% / 45% · Actual Over (+8.8)
- Dejounte MurrayExp 20.7 → 10
Over/Under 19.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-10.7)
- De'Andre HunterExp 14.5 → 17
Over/Under 13.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+2.5)
- Saddiq BeyExp 12.6 → 22
Over/Under 11.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+9.4)
- Bogdan BogdanovicExp 12.6 → 13
Over/Under 11.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Over (+0.4)
Boxscore leaders
- Bam Adebayo30 PTS
- Saddiq Bey22 PTS
- Tyler Herro20 PTS
- De'Andre Hunter17 PTS
- Clint Capela16 PTS
- Caleb Martin15 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 9.8 → 10
Over/Under 8.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (+0.2)
- Dejounte MurrayExp 5.5 → 3
Over/Under 4.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Under (-2.5)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 5.4 → 7
Over/Under 4.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+1.6)
- Tyler HerroExp 4.3 → 5
Over/Under 3.5: 63% / 37% · Actual Over (+0.7)
- Kyle LowryExp 4.1
Over/Under 3.5: 59% / 41%
- Bam AdebayoExp 3.5 → 5
Over/Under 2.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Over (+1.5)
- Victor OladipoExp 3.1 → 6
Over/Under 2.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Over (+2.9)
- Bogdan BogdanovicExp 2.5 → 2
Over/Under 1.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Over (-0.5)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young10 AST
- Jimmy Butler III7 AST
- Victor Oladipo6 AST
- Bam Adebayo5 AST
- Tyler Herro5 AST
- Dejounte Murray3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Trae YoungExp 1.5 → 5
Over/Under 0.5: 77% / 23% · Actual Over (+3.5)
- Jimmy Butler IIIExp 1.3 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (+0.7)
- Kyle LowryExp 1.1
Over/Under 0.5: 67% / 33%
- Bam AdebayoExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (0)
- Caleb MartinExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (0)
- Dejounte MurrayExp 1.0 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 62% / 38% · Actual Over (+1)
- Victor OladipoExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Tyler HerroExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-0.9)
Boxscore leaders
- Trae Young5 STL
- Dejounte Murray2 STL
- Jimmy Butler III2 STL
- Saddiq Bey2 STL
- Bam Adebayo1 STL
- Bogdan Bogdanovic1 STL
Recent form (L5)
ATL
Record: 3-2
PPG 122.2 · Opp PPG 119.6
MIA
Record: 1-4
PPG 103.8 · Opp PPG 115.2
Head to head
ATL 3–7 MIA · 10 Meetings
