Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
2023-03-10 · FINAL
120 – 128
P(away)
59%
P(home)
41%
λ home / away · confidence
116.4 / 120.0 · 26%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 26.0 → 37
Over/Under 25.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Over (+11)
- Jamal MurrayExp 23.2 → 24
Over/Under 22.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+0.8)
- Keldon JohnsonExp 20.6 → 23
Over/Under 19.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+2.4)
- Devin VassellExp 18.6 → 14
Over/Under 17.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-4.6)
- Michael Porter Jr.Exp 18.0 → 7
Over/Under 17.5: 53% / 47% · Actual Under (-11)
- Aaron GordonExp 15.7 → 14
Over/Under 14.5: 61% / 40% · Actual Under (-1.7)
- Jeremy SochanExp 15.1 → 19
Over/Under 14.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+3.9)
- Zach CollinsExp 13.0 → 10
Over/Under 12.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Under (-3)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic37 PTS
- Jamal Murray24 PTS
- Keldon Johnson23 PTS
- Doug McDermott20 PTS
- Jeremy Sochan19 PTS
- Aaron Gordon14 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 10.0 → 11
Over/Under 8.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (+1)
- Jamal MurrayExp 6.6 → 7
Over/Under 5.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+0.4)
- Tre JonesExp 5.0 → 8
Over/Under 3.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Over (+3)
- Devin VassellExp 3.9 → 4
Over/Under 2.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Over (+0.1)
- Zach CollinsExp 3.8 → 3
Over/Under 2.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Over (-0.8)
- Devonte' GrahamExp 3.8
Over/Under 2.5: 73% / 27%
- Keldon JohnsonExp 3.5 → 6
Over/Under 2.5: 68% / 32% · Actual Over (+2.5)
- Kentavious Caldwell-PopeExp 3.3 → 5
Over/Under 2.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (+1.7)
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic11 AST
- Tre Jones8 AST
- Jamal Murray7 AST
- Keldon Johnson6 AST
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope5 AST
- Devin Vassell4 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Kentavious Caldwell-PopeExp 1.7 → 4
Over/Under 0.5: 82% / 18% · Actual Over (+2.3)
- Nikola JokicExp 1.4 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 75% / 25% · Actual Over (+1.6)
- Jamal MurrayExp 1.3 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 73% / 27% · Actual Over (+1.7)
- Devin VassellExp 1.2 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 69% / 31% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- Tre JonesExp 1.1 → 3
Over/Under 0.5: 66% / 34% · Actual Over (+1.9)
- Zach CollinsExp 0.9 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+0.1)
- Keita Bates-DiopExp 0.9 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Under (-0.9)
- Bruce BrownExp 0.9 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+1.1)
Boxscore leaders
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope4 STL
- Jamal Murray3 STL
- Nikola Jokic3 STL
- Tre Jones3 STL
- Bruce Brown2 STL
- Keldon Johnson2 STL
Recent form (L5)
DEN
Record: 4-1
PPG 118.8 · Opp PPG 112.6
SAS
Record: 2-3
PPG 106.8 · Opp PPG 115
Head to head
DEN 7–3 SAS · 10 Meetings
