San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
2018-12-28 · FINAL
99 – 102
P(away)
43%
P(home)
57%
λ home / away · confidence
106.6 / 103.9 · 20%
Player props
Expected counting stats + over/under
Points
Expected PTS · O/U near projection
- DeMar DeRozanExp 22.9 → 15
Over/Under 21.5: 60% / 40% · Actual Under (-7.9)
- Nikola JokicExp 19.4 → 21
Over/Under 18.5: 56% / 44% · Actual Over (+1.6)
- LaMarcus AldridgeExp 19.1 → 24
Over/Under 18.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+4.9)
- Jamal MurrayExp 19.1 → 31
Over/Under 18.5: 54% / 46% · Actual Over (+11.9)
- Gary HarrisExp 15.3
Over/Under 14.5: 57% / 43%
- Paul MillsapExp 13.5
Over/Under 12.5: 59% / 41%
- Rudy GayExp 13.4 → 8
Over/Under 12.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-5.4)
- Will BartonExp 12.4
Over/Under 11.5: 59% / 41%
Boxscore leaders
- Jamal Murray31 PTS
- LaMarcus Aldridge24 PTS
- Malik Beasley21 PTS
- Nikola Jokic21 PTS
- DeMar DeRozan15 PTS
- Bryn Forbes13 PTS
Assists
Expected AST · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 7.2 → 9
Over/Under 6.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Over (+1.8)
- DeMar DeRozanExp 6.2 → 5
Over/Under 5.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-1.2)
- Jamal MurrayExp 5.2 → 3
Over/Under 4.5: 59% / 41% · Actual Under (-2.2)
- Monte MorrisExp 4.2 → 7
Over/Under 3.5: 61% / 39% · Actual Over (+2.8)
- Derrick WhiteExp 4.1 → 3
Over/Under 3.5: 58% / 42% · Actual Under (-1.1)
- Mason PlumleeExp 2.8 → 3
Over/Under 1.5: 77% / 23% · Actual Over (+0.2)
- Will BartonExp 2.8
Over/Under 1.5: 76% / 24%
- Pau GasolExp 2.7
Over/Under 1.5: 75% / 25%
Boxscore leaders
- Nikola Jokic9 AST
- Monte Morris7 AST
- DeMar DeRozan5 AST
- Derrick White3 AST
- Jamal Murray3 AST
- LaMarcus Aldridge3 AST
Steals
Expected STL · O/U near projection
- Nikola JokicExp 1.3 → 0
Over/Under 0.5: 74% / 26% · Actual Under (-1.3)
- Derrick WhiteExp 1.2 → 6
Over/Under 0.5: 70% / 30% · Actual Over (+4.8)
- Monte MorrisExp 1.1 → 2
Over/Under 0.5: 65% / 35% · Actual Over (+0.9)
- DeMar DeRozanExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Paul MillsapExp 1.0
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36%
- Jamal MurrayExp 1.0 → 1
Over/Under 0.5: 64% / 36% · Actual Over (0)
- Gary HarrisExp 0.9
Over/Under 0.5: 60% / 40%
- Will BartonExp 0.8
Over/Under 0.5: 57% / 43%
Boxscore leaders
- Derrick White6 STL
- LaMarcus Aldridge3 STL
- Bryn Forbes2 STL
- Monte Morris2 STL
- DeMar DeRozan1 STL
- Jamal Murray1 STL
Recent form (L5)
SAS
Record: 4-1
PPG 117.6 · Opp PPG 99
DEN
Record: 3-2
PPG 108.8 · Opp PPG 109
Head to head
SAS 1–0 DEN · 1 Meetings
